Thursday, May 22, 2008

Obama: A Tale of Too Tepid Momentum

There's rustling in them thar hills.

Yep. There's rumblings.

Buyer's remorse? (Note pic from Obama mailer pushing Republican talking point anti-universal health care frame. Ooh, we don't want to be forced, do we? Universal health care = assault?)

Post-slick-salespitch need for cooling-off period?

And what's with the tepid finish?
"Momentum has disappeared," said Dante Scala, a political scientist at the University of New Hampshire. "Except for that one stretch between February and March where Obama won 11 in a row, momentum has really taken a backseat to the demographics . . .

"I think there's concern . . . that his coalition has big holes in it. He hasn't consolidated the Democratic Party and he isn't any closer than he was after, say, Super Tuesday. That voter bloc, the white working-class voters, they are in places that Democrats need to win. Without Pennsylvania, without Ohio, the electoral-college map gets difficult for Obama . . .There are general election concerns there."

Yuh, I'd be worried, too.

McCain Takes the Lead Back From Obama, at Hominid Views.

Clinton Holds Her Lead Over McCain, at Hominid Views.

A great post by Anglachel on "Legitimacy, Not Unity."
The increasing rejection of Obama by voters is a measure of his declining legitimacy. People who once thought they would gladly vote for him, like me, are now implacably opposed to him. He is no longer legitimate in our eyes. He has not sought legitimacy, which would mean facing up to oposition and allowing himself to be challenged, questioned, and probably be found wanting by some people, but has opted to pursue power at any price.

Participating in and profiting from the media hatred of the Clintons, throwing out accusations of racism to try to forestall criticism and inflate AA vote counts, encouraging people to be "Obamacans" not Democrats, the "Democrat for a Day" strategy, engaging in intimidation and threats to extract caucus votes, aggressively trying to monopolize money specifically to silence alternative voices, and treating voters who do not choose him first with contempt.

Lack of legitimacy means relying on force to win. If you have to bully people to make them be quiet, you have lost legitimacy. If you have to remove votes from the contest in order to win, you have lost legitimacy.

From Corrente, "Gene Lyons Finds Uncreative Racists Who Spurn Obama Surprisingly Articulate and Informed."

And the most recent Quinnipiac Swing State poll.

Not happy news for Obama. Are the superdelegates listening?

May 22, 2008 - McCain Leads Obama In Two Of Three Key Swing States, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds;
Clinton Has Big Leads In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania ---

FLORIDA: Clinton 48 - McCain 41; McCain 45 - Obama 41;
OHIO: Clinton 48 - McCain 41; McCain 44 - Obama 40:
PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 50 - McCain 37; Obama 46 - McCain 40

Don't say I didn't warn you.

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